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☆ JPMorgan's trading desk lays out 6 scenarios for tomorrow's inflation report, and how the stock market will react to each of them
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Wednesday release of the April CPI report has the potential to shake up the stock market. A cool inflation report would bode well for interest rate cuts from the Fed and vice versa if it's hotter than expected. JPMorgan laid out six scenarios for April CPI and how the stock market could react to each. The coming inflation report is set to market-shaking because it will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might move forward with interest rate cuts. At the start of the year, the market was pricing in as many as seven interest rate cuts, but that has dwindled to just two rate cuts before year-end.

Persons: bode, —, Defensives outperforming, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler, Tyler, Immaculate Disinflation Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, China PPI Locations: China

☆ Everyone is worried about inflation. Here’s why it’s tracked two different ways
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Housing, housing and more housingThe housing sector carries more than four times as much weight in CPI compared to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. But, with PCE, housing has a much more limited impact on the inflation index. Both indexes are faulted for using this metric to calculate housing inflationBoth indexes use a widely criticized metric called owners’ equivalent rent (OER) to track housing inflation. But it can often take months for these trends to show up in either the PCE or CPI housing indexes. Another issue with using OER to track housing inflation is that it doesn’t really affect homeowners.

Persons: Joe Biden, Frederic J . Brown, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Cleveland Federal Reserve, PCE, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Getty, Commerce Department, Bank of America Locations: New York, November’s, AFP

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ Instant view: Cooler October US CPI raises confidence that Fed hikes done
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI gaining 0.1% on the month and increasing 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. The rally was due to rising investor belief that the Federal Reserve will now be less likely to hike interest rates at future meetings. LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI-SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK“Today's Core CPI print was below expectations. "The Fed will not want to step back from its hawkish stance yet; the annual core rate at 4% is still some way away from target. THOMAS HAYES, CHAIRMAN AT HEDGE FUND GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK"We're happy to see both headline and core CPI come in lower than expected.

Persons: Hannah Beier, ” BEN JEFFERY, GREG BASSUK, ” “, ” BRIAN JACOBSEN, MENOMONEE, we’ll, ” CHRIS ZACCARELLI, LINDSAY ROSNER, GOLDMAN, ” MATTHEW MISKIN, JOHN, “, ” STUART COLE, Kashkari, Powell, PETER ANDERSEN, ANDERSEN, it's, THOMAS HAYES, OLIVER PURSCHE, It’s, ” Organizations: Reading, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters, Treasury, Markets, BMO, Reserve, CPI, ALLIANCE, Fed, Global Finance, Thomson Locations: Philadelphia , Pennsylvania, U.S, WALTHAM, MA, WISCONSIN, CHARLOTTE, GOLDMAN SACHS, JOHN HANCOCK, BOSTON, LONDON

☆ US consumer prices rise on surge in rents; underlying inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Gasoline prices rose 2.1% after accelerating 10.6% in August. Year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Reuters GraphicsExcluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, matching August's gain. Still-strong demand in the economy, marked by labor market resilience, suggests borrowing costs could remain elevated for some time. Reuters GraphicsThere is no sign yet that the United Auto Workers (UAW)strike, now in its fourth week, is having a major impact on the labor market.

Persons: Bing Guan, Olu Sonola, Seema Shah, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Higher U.S, Treasury, Fitch, CPI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ Gasoline fuels US consumer inflation; underlying trend still improving
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The consumer price index increased by 0.6% last month, the largest gain since June 2022. Gasoline prices, which jumped 10.6% after rising 0.2% in July, accounted for more than half of the increase in the CPI last month. While that marked the second straight month of a pick-up in annual inflation, year-on-year consumer prices have come down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022. The so-called core CPI had increased 0.2% for two consecutive months. In the 12 months through August, the core CPI increased 4.3%.

Persons: bode, Phillip Neuhart, Chris Zaccarelli, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, First Citizens Bank, U.S . Energy Information Administration, Treasury, Independent, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Financial, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Ford Motor, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Charlotte , North Carolina

☆ US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation subsides
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

An increase in prices at the pump late in the month will likely be reflected in the August inflation report. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI would rise 0.2% last month and by 3.3% on a year-on-year basis. Reuters GraphicsThe CPI report is one of two before the Fed's Sept. 19-20 policy meeting. Underlying inflation was curbed by a 0.3% drop in core goods prices, which followed a 0.1% dip in June. But with worker productivity rising, economists are optimistic that labor costs will be contained.

Persons: Jim Vondruska, Will Compernolle, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Shoppers, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters, Financial, Treasury, Services, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York

☆ US economy shifts into disinflation mode; consumer prices rise modestly
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That was the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 and followed a 4.0% rise in May. The year-on-year CPI is slowing in part as last year's large rises drop out of the calculation. It was the first time in six months that the so-called core CPI did not post monthly gains of at least 0.4%. Services prices rose 0.3%, matching May's gain. Economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Joe Biden, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Silbiger, Michael Gregory, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Reuters Graphics, CPI, Reuters, Independent, Treasury, El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, BMO Capital Markets, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina, Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, Toronto

☆ Mariana Trench and Challenger Deep: 6 facts about the oceanic chasm
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Jackie Wattles | Amaya Mcdonald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

‘Titanic’ director James Cameron is one of the few people who have visitedFew human expeditions have ventured to the Challenger Deep. Explorer and Texas investor Victor Vescovo said he saw a plastic bag and candy wrappers at the bottom of the Mariana Trench. A trip to the Challenger Deep can put a vessel under pressure that is “equivalent to 50 jumbo jets,” Feldman noted. In 2005, tiny single-celled organisms called foraminifera, a type of plankton, were discovered in the Challenger Deep,” according to NOAA. Given high interest in the Mariana Trench, however, researchers have made several efforts to give increasingly detailed pictures of its features.

Persons: CNN —, Trench, James Cameron, Jacques Piccard, Don Walsh, Gene Feldman, Saeed Khan, ”, Victor Vescovo, Vescovo, Mariana Trench, Mariana, ” Feldman, That’s Organizations: CNN, NASA, Getty, Mariana Trench, Atlantic Productions, Discovery Channel, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, Marianas Trench Locations: Everest, Trieste, Sydney, AFP, Texas, Chamorro, Mariana

☆ US consumer price increases slow; underlying inflation sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But food prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged for two consecutive months as fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages and other food products became more expensive. While the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 3.7%, that was from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April. The so-called core CPI increased 0.4% in May, rising by the same margin for the third straight month. Beyond May, however, overall core inflation is expected to slow, driven by a moderation in rents and resumption in price declines for used cars and trucks. "We expect a more noticeable deceleration in core prices in the coming months," said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo in New York.

Persons: Kathy Bostjancic, Joe Biden, I've, Biden, nonfarm, Michael Pugliese, Wells, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ US annual inflation increase slows to below 5%, price pressures still strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month, matching March's gain. Though rents continued to put upward pressure on the core CPI, rental inflation is poised to ease. The government reported last week that the rental vacancy rate increased to a two-year high in the first quarter. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI gained 5.5% after advancing by 5.6% in March.

☆ US expected to report strong consumer price increases in February
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists said Tuesday's report remained important for policymakers despite the angst in financial markets. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) likely increased by 0.4% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Food prices are expected to have risen moderately after climbing 0.5% in January. Gasoline prices likely increased, but overall energy prices probably eased slightly because of a decrease in the cost of energy services. With rents remaining hot, services less energy, probably recorded another month of strong price gains after rising 0.5% in January.

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